Chapter 32.12
FIRST OPEN HOUSE

Sections:

32.12.010    First open house – March 8, 2007.

32.12.020    Barriers.

32.12.030    Opportunities.

32.12.040    Transportation and circulation.

32.12.050    Market conditions.

32.12.060    Market demand estimates.

32.12.070    Market absorption.

32.12.080    Public comment summary.

32.12.010 First open house – March 8, 2007.

(a)    The first open house was held March 8, 2007, and notification was sent out to the surrounding property owners and tenants of the corridor study area. The EDAW team presented the land use, districtization of the corridor area and character boards to assist the public in generating comments to guide the vision of the study area.

(b)    An overview analysis of traffic and circulation for the current conditions provided guidance as to the classification, peak hours, traffic volumes, and accident history. This data allowed the EDAW team to evaluate and understand the allowable increase of traffic that would potentially be produced from the redevelopment of commercial and residential uses to the corridor.

(c)    The following boards and information were presented to the public based on the initial site analysis:

(1)    Barriers – photographic images of the current barrier conditions found throughout the North Avenue Corridor.

(2)    Opportunities – photographic images showing the potential vision of the corridor.

(3)    Transportation and circulation.

(4)    Market conditions.

(Res. 174-07 (Exh. A), 12-3-07)

32.12.020 Barriers.

(Res. 174-07 (Exh. A), 12-3-07)

32.12.030 Opportunities.

(Res. 174-07 (Exh. A), 12-3-07)

32.12.040 Transportation and circulation.

(a)    Transportation Analysis of Conditions. Based on data collected by both the City and CDOT, average daily traffic volumes on North Avenue range from 33,400 in the vicinity of 15th Street to 21,200 in the vicinity of 29 1/2 Road. On average, the peak hour of traffic represents approximately eight percent of the daily traffic. In the a.m. peak hour, 58 percent of the traffic is westbound and 42 percent is eastbound. In the p.m. peak hour, 46 percent of the traffic is westbound and 54 percent is eastbound.

(b)    To determine how efficiently and effectively the existing roadway network accommodates the existing traffic volumes, all of the signalized intersections were analyzed by City staff. The results are shown as levels of service (LOS). Letters designate each level, from A to F. LOS A, B and C represent the intersection status as under capacity, LOS D is near capacity, LOS E is at capacity, and LOS F is over capacity. LOS D or better is the desired operating performance at signalized intersections. In all cases, each signalized intersection is currently performing under capacity during each peak hour. In addition, an urban street LOS analysis was completed. This analysis is based on average travel speeds for through vehicles on North Avenue. The results indicate that traffic on North Avenue operates reasonably unimpeded at average travel speeds and delays at signalized intersections are not significant (LOS A/B).

(c)    Over a three-year period from 2004 to 2006, there was an average of 153 accidents per year on North Avenue. Seventy percent involved property damage only and the remaining 30 percent involved injury. There were no fatalities. Based on the daily usage of North Avenue, this number of accidents is relatively high when compared to comparable roadways throughout the State.

Approximately 70 percent of the accidents on North Avenue involve rear-end, broadside or approach-turn crashes. The rear-end crashes commonly indicate differences in vehicle speed or sudden starting and stopping. The numerous turning movement opportunities throughout the corridor provide the opportunity for broadside and approach-turn crashes.

From 2004 to 2006, there also were 14 pedestrian- and 11 bicycle-related accidents.

(d)    Based on the above analysis, the following can be concluded:

(1)    North Avenue has the capacity to accommodate additional demand that may be generated from new projects in the corridor.

(2)    As the corridor redevelops, access points should be consolidated and properly spaced to minimize conflicts, especially in close proximity to the signalized intersections.

(3)    Pedestrian- and bicycle-related improvements should be provided to facilitate safer passage both along and across North Avenue.

(Res. 174-07 (Exh. A), 12-3-07)

32.12.050 Market conditions.

(a)    Market Analysis. Older commercial corridors are emerging as targets for revitalization efforts in cities throughout the nation. In virtually every story of success, these new redevelopments have been the result of a holistic approach which capitalizes on each segment of the project, yet positions the sum of the parts as a place in and for the community. Experience has proven that forming and advancing the development agenda within these corridors requires a keen understanding of the goals and aspirations of the community, the realities of the marketplace, peculiarities of the political landscape and constraints of local public/private resources. With this understanding, project advocates are then positioned to establish priorities for action that implement the vision.

(b)    Methodology. Work completed focused on investigating physical conditions related to the North Avenue Corridor area and its environment, contiguous uses, and access and visibility from the remainder of the community and the region; as well as economic, financial, and market conditions in the influence area (trade area) of Grand Junction and Mesa County. This was accomplished through visual inspections of the North Avenue Corridor, competitive development areas within Grand Junction, and analyses of primary and secondary data sources.

The analysis that follows has several critical components. The first includes an overview of economic and demographic characteristics that will influence the type of development and/or redevelopment that occurs in the market and specifically within North Avenue Corridor. The second presents a review of those market indicators and trends that provide an indication of the health of the market and economy, including quantified demand by land use type. The third offers a discussion about corridorwide and node-specific redevelopment elements that present a market opportunity for the study area.

(c)    The purpose of the market analysis is fourfold:

(1)    Provides a reality check for the land use planning component.

(2)    Ensures that recommendations are grounded in market and economic reality.

(3)    Sets stage for implementation and policy reform.

(4)    Provides an accurate and independent story to tell potential developer/investor audiences.

(d)    The market analysis attempts to answer the following questions, For each land use, we ask:

(1)    What is the market and how will it evolve?

(i)    What is the environment today;

(ii)    Trade area size and shape (should include most likely customers and competitors);

(iii)    Who’s in the market (describe customer base demographics/economics);

(iv)    How will market be affected by events which occur over time.

(2)    What is and will be the competition?

(i)    Types of competition;

(ii)    Size and performance of competitors;

(iii)    Potential to leverage ongoing investment and existing assets.

(3)    How much demand is and will be in the market?

(i)    Annual absorption (in units or square feet), projected forward.

(4)    How much total market demand can the area capture and how?

(i)    Given the market, the competition, and the nature of the project.

(5)    How can market demand and capture be influenced over time?

(i)    Impact of public and private events and actions.

(e)    Planning City core redevelopment requires an understanding of the built environment and the people within it. The market analysis, conducted by Leland Consulting Group (LCG) and summarized herein, focused on identifying market opportunities within the region and representative influence or trade area. What the analysis showed was that ongoing and projected trade area growth provides healthy levels of market support for a range of different land use types. Characteristics of the North Avenue Corridor in particular offer unique opportunities for targeted redevelopment. There is market demand and, with strategic public and private investment and continued policy support, the North Avenue Corridor can be positioned to capitalize on niche and destination opportunities that can serve the community and region.

The information below presents an overview of current and future market conditions in Grand Junction and Mesa County. Since the North Avenue Corridor represents a sub-market within the overall Grand Junction region (Mesa County), and, as such, will likely compete with projects from a broader influence (trade) area, indicators and conditions for both the City of Grand Junction (the City) and Mesa County (the County) were analyzed. A map of the Grand Junction Trade Area is presented in subsection (b) of this section.

The trade area is that area from which a project(s) or area will draw the majority of its patrons (retail), residents (housing) and employees (office) – that area which will likely be a source of competition and demand. Trade area boundaries for individual store types and specific residential uses will vary from one another and may have irregular shapes as they are influenced by the following conditions:

(1)    Physical barriers;

(2)    Location of possible competition;

(3)    Proximity to population/employment concentrations;

(4)    Zoning;

(5)    Market factors;

(6)    Drive times, spending.

Experience has proven that effective place-making (including revitalization of a key arterial corridor) can increase market shares and draw from larger than traditional trade areas, such as the greater Grand Junction region. For this reason, as well as for simplicity of interpretation and presentation, all market demand in this analysis is shown for either the City of Grand Junction or for Mesa County overall, with North Avenue’s attainable market share or capture shown as a percentage of this total demand.

(f)    Economic and Demographic Indicators. Economic and demographic characteristics in the market are indicators of overall trends and economic health which may affect private and public sector development. The following tables and exhibits highlight those trends expected to affect development demand within the Grand Junction area over the next 10 years.

(g)    Household and Employment Growth. Grand Junction is the only major metropolitan area on Colorado’s Western Slope and as such is a regional trade and service center for much of western Colorado and eastern Utah. Over half of the area’s employment base is concentrated in four industries – retail trade, health care, leisure and hospitality, and government. The share of Mesa County jobs in the manufacturing sector is about equal to the State average but the local economy also draws substantial support from tourism and spending from relocated retirees. The mining sector’s influence on the local economy has rebounded in recent years with renewed exploration for natural gas in the Piceance Basin. While mining now represents just 2.9 percent of local workers, it has accounted for 30 percent of the jobs added since 2002 in Mesa, Garfield and Rio Blanco counties.

Strong economic activity, led by the energy sector, together with climate, scenery and other quality of life advantages, is driving robust population and household growth in the Grand Junction region. ESRI (a census-based demographic data provider) projects 2.25 percent annual growth in households for Grand Junction and 2.47 percent growth for Mesa County over the next five years. The State demographer projects a 2.25 percent annual growth rate for the County from 2006 to 2016. Real growth in the area has exceeded these rates in recent years due to regional energy-related expansion. To reflect enhanced near-term growth, leveling off somewhat in the longer term, LCG forecasts a blended household growth rate of 2.5 percent annually over the next 10 years. This household growth is slightly higher than the projected population growth rate due to an assumption of gradually decreasing household sizes.

Western Colorado and the Grand Junction area in particular are experiencing robust employment growth driven by a strong energy sector. Statewide unemployment in May of 2007 was 3.3 percent, versus just 2.7 percent in Mesa County. In the past 12 months ending in May 2007, Mesa County’s employment base grew by 4.0 percent to 74,393 jobs – almost double the healthy 2.1 percent growth rate Statewide over the same period. The Colorado Department of Labor and Employment forecasts Statewide annual job growth from 2004 to 2014 of just over 2.1 percent, versus just almost 2.8 percent for Mesa County. Based on these sources, LCG projected 2.8 percent annual employment growth through 2016 for the Grand Junction Trade Area.

(h)    Household and Population Characteristics. Demographic characteristics for Grand Junction Trade Area households are summarized in the tables below. Note that for this comparison, the North Avenue Area is defined as Grand Avenue to Orchard Avenue, 7th Street to 30 Road.

Household Growth

 

North Ave. Area

Grand Junction

Mesa County

2000 Households

5,405

17,865

45,823

2006 Households

5,548

19,999

53,065

2011 Households

6,082

22,538

60,161

2006 – 2011 CAGR

1.85%

2.42%

2.54%

While the North Avenue vicinity is growing more slowly than the City of Grand Junction and Mesa County – a phenomenon common to older central urban areas – it is still growing at a healthy rate. Grand Junction has 37 percent of Mesa County households, and the North Avenue area has just less than one-third of Grand Junction’s households.

The map illustrates the distribution of recent household growth in the Grand Junction area, showing, as in many comparably sized cities, clusters of growth towards the fringe and relatively slow growth in the central City.

 

Household Characteristics

 

North Ave. Area

Grand Junction

Mesa County

Pct. Nonfamily

47%

41%

31%

Household size (2006)

2.20

2.25

2.47

% 1 & 2 Person Households (2000)

44%

31%

23%

2006 – 2011 CAGR

69%

70%

63%

Like the immediate North Avenue vicinity, the City of Grand Junction has households that are smaller, more likely to rent, and more likely to be nonfamily in nature, versus households in the County overall.

Ethnicity (2006)

 

North Ave. Area

Grand Junction

Mesa County

White Alone

87%

91%

91%

Black Alone

1%

1%

1%

Asian/Pacific Alone

1%

1%

1%

Other/Multiple

10%

8%

7%

Hispanic Origin

16%

13%

12%

The North Avenue area is slightly more ethnically diverse than the City and County as a whole, with 16 percent of the population of Hispanic origin, up from 14 percent in 2000.

Population by Age (2006)

 

North Ave. Area

Grand Junction

Mesa County

0 to 24

39%

31%

33%

25 to 34

17%

13%

12%

35 to 44

11%

12%

12%

45 to 54

12%

15%

16%

55 to 64

8%

11%

12%

65+

13%

18%

15%

median

30.4

40.8

39.8

Grand Junction has a significant senior population, drawn to the area primarily for its climate. While the City and County have similar age distributions, the North Avenue vicinity has a significantly younger profile. This is due in part to the influence of Colorado Mesa University (formerly Mesa State College) and somewhat younger-skewing Hispanic households in the surrounding neighborhoods.

Educational Attainment (2000)

(age 25+)

North Ave. Area

Grand Junction

Mesa County

Graduate Degree

5%

9%

7%

Bachelor’s

14%

17%

15%

Some College

32%

32%

33%

High School Grad.

32%

27%

30%

No H.S. diploma

18%

15%

15%

Education attainment in the North Avenue vicinity is somewhat lower than in the City overall, but more similar to the Countywide profile. Most (58 percent) of Grand Junction adult residents have attended at least some college, versus 64 percent Statewide.

Household Income (2006)

Ann. Household Income

North Ave. Area

Grand Junction

Mesa County

$0 – 25K

40%

32%

27%

$25 – 35K

16%

13%

13%

$35 – 50K

19%

19%

19%

$50 – 75K

17%

18%

21%

$75 – 100K

5%

7%

9%

$100 – 150K

2%

8%

8%

$150K+

1%

4%

4%

Per Capita

$17,500

$23,959

$22,761

Med. Household

$35,316

$44,111

$49,249

Household incomes in the County are higher than those in the City of Grand Junction, which in turn are higher than those for the North Avenue immediate vicinity. Because household sizes are smaller in Grand Junction than the County overall, the City has slightly higher per capita incomes, however.

The map illustrates the geographical distribution of households by income in the area. Note that higher incomes are generally found toward the outer edges of the City, especially towards the north side.

(i)    Psychographics. Psychographics is a term used to describe characteristics of people and neighborhoods which, instead of being purely demographic, measure their attitudes, interests, opinions, and lifestyles. These more qualitative descriptions are increasingly used by marketers and planners to help tailor product offerings to suit the tastes of target market segments. Residential homebuilders and commercial retail developers, in particular, are interested in understanding a community’s psychographic profile, as this is an indication of its residents’ propensity to spend across select retail categories. Residential developers are also interested in understanding this profile as it tends to suggest preferences for certain housing product types. The most widely used source of psychographic profiling is the Tapestry segmentation system offered by ESRI. In the Tapestry system, each neighborhood (census block group) in the United States is assigned to one of 64 distinct lifestyle/psychographic segments.

The top Tapestry segments in Grand Junction are shown in the table below, along with a count of households represented by each segment and an index indicating how prevalent that segment locally as compared to nationally (an index of 100 would be expected given the population, while an index of 400 would be four times the national level). The segments are described in the paragraphs that follow.

Segment

Trade Area Households

Index to U.S.

Midlife Junction

3,655

731%

Prosperous Empty Nesters

2,912

791%

Great Expectations

2,341

660%

Retirement Communities

1,663

557%

Simple Living

1,575

543%

Exurbanites

1,148

235%

(1)    Midlife Junction communities are found in suburbs across the country. Residents are phasing out of their child-rearing years. Nearly half of the households are comprised of married-couple families and 31 percent are singles, living alone. The median age is 40.5 years and the median household income is $43,600. A third of households receive Social Security benefits. Nearly two-thirds of households are single-family structures, and the remaining dwellings are mainly apartments in multi-unit buildings. These residents live quiet, settled lives. They spend their money prudently and do not succumb to fads. They prefer to shop by mail or phone, from catalogs such as J.C. Penney, L.L. Bean, and Lands’ End. They enjoy yoga, attending country music concerts and auto races, refinishing furniture, and reading romance novels.

(2)    Prosperous Empty Nesters neighborhoods are well established, located throughout the United States; approximately one-third are on the eastern seaboard. The median age is 47.2 years. More than half of the householders are aged 55 or older. Forty percent of household types are married couples with no children living at home. Educated and experienced, residents are enjoying the life stage transition from child rearing to retirement. The median household income is $66,200.

Residents place a high value on their physical and financial well-being and take an active interest in their homes and communities. They travel extensively, both at home and abroad. Leisure activities include refinishing furniture, playing golf, attending sports events, and reading mysteries. Civic participation includes joining civic clubs, engaging in fund-raising, and working as volunteers.

(3)    Great Expectations neighborhoods are located throughout the country, with higher proportions in the Midwest and South. Young singles and married-couple families dominate. The median age is 33.0 years. Labor force participation is high. Manufacturing, retail, and service industries are the primary employers. About half of the households are occupied by owners in single-family dwellings, with a median value of $100,600, and the other half are occupied by renters, mainly living in apartments in low-rise or mid-rise buildings. Most of the housing units in these older suburban neighborhoods were built before 1960. Residents enjoy a young and active lifestyle. They go out to dinner, to the movies, to bars, and to night clubs. They enjoy roller skating, roller blading, playing Frisbee, chess, and pool, and attending auto races. They read music magazines and listen to rock music on the radio.

(4)    Retirement Communities neighborhoods are found mostly in cities scattered across the United States. The majority of households are multi-unit dwellings. Congregate housing, which commonly includes meals and other services in the rent, is a trait of this segment dominated by singles who live alone. This educated, older market has a median age of 50.7 years. One-third of residents are aged 65 years or older. Although the median household income is a modest $45,100, the median net worth is $172,000.

Good health is a priority; residents visit their doctors regularly, diet and exercise, purchase low-sodium food, and take vitamins. They spend their leisure time working crossword puzzles, playing bingo, gardening indoors, canoeing, gambling, and traveling overseas. They like to spend time with their grandchildren and spoil them with toys. Home remodeling projects are usually in the works.

(5)    Simple Living neighborhoods are found in urban outskirts or suburban areas throughout the United States. Half of the households are singles who live alone or share housing, and 32 percent consist of married-couple families. The median age is 40.1 years. Approximately one-third of householders are aged 65 years or older; 19 percent are aged 75 years or older. Housing is a mix of single-family dwellings and multi-unit buildings of varying stories. Some seniors live in congregate housing (assisted living). Fifty-five percent of households are occupied by renters. Approximately 40 percent of households receive Social Security benefits.

Younger residents enjoy going out dancing, whereas seniors prefer going to bingo night. To stay fit, residents play softball and volleyball. Many households do not own a computer, cell phone, or DVD player. Residents watch hours of TV per day, especially sitcoms and science fiction shows.

Open areas with affluence define these neighborhoods. Empty nesters comprise 40 percent of these households; married couples with children occupy 32 percent. Half of the householders are between the ages of 45 and 64 years. The median age is 43.6 years. Approximately half of those who work hold professional or managerial positions. The median home value is approximately $255,900; the median household income is $83,200.

(6)    Exurbanites. Financial health is a priority for the Exurbanites market; they consult with financial planners and track their investments online. They own a diverse investment portfolio and hold long-term care and substantial life insurance policies. Residents work on their homes, lawns, and gardens. Leisure activities include boating, hiking, kayaking, playing Frisbee, photography, and bird-watching. Many are members of fraternal orders and participate in civic activities.

For North Avenue: Of the segments described above, Prosperous Empty Nesters and Retirement Communities indicate a particular opportunity for senior-oriented residential development along the North Avenue Corridor. Such development would not need to be age-restricted, but could capitalize on pedestrian-friendly amenities, opportunities for outdoor activities and proximity to convenience-good shopping and medical facilities. The Great Expectations segment, with its relatively high proportion of renters and young couples, would be a promising target for more dense mixed use residential and retail development along the corridor, particularly in the vicinity of Colorado Mesa University (formerly Mesa State College).

(Senate Bill 11-265, 6-6-11; Res. 174-07 (Exh. A), 12-3-07)

32.12.060 Market demand estimates.

Critical to interpreting the North Avenue Corridor’s competitive position within the region is an understanding of the characteristics of land uses within a defined trade area. In order to identify potential development opportunities among these uses (given the area’s competitive position and prevailing market conditions), demand estimates were prepared.

As stated earlier, because the North Avenue Corridor may have the ability to draw from a larger trade area, demand estimates by land use type were prepared for the broader region. Because of the urban nature of the corridor, residential demand is assumed to be a function of household growth in the City of Grand Junction itself, while retail and office demand is a function of growth in the County as a whole (and beyond, in the case of certain retail types). What follows is a discussion of recent and projected demand conditions for residential, retail, and office uses, along with estimates of attainable capture for redevelopment parcels within the corridor itself.

(a)    Residential. With strong residential growth over the past several years, Mesa County is permitting an average of 1,430 units per year since 1999 and saw record construction of 1,589 units in 2005. There has been relatively little variation in level of construction in general, with the low point in 2001 seeing 1,253 permits issued. In part because of lower than average interest rates, multifamily construction has accounted for less than 10 percent of this total. Given that increases in energy-sector employment tends to be led by relatively itinerant single males, and that interest rates have been trending upwards, the share of rental units, especially in Grand Junction itself, should increase over time to closer to the existing overall rate of just over 30 percent.

Residential vacancy rates in Grand Junction and Mesa County are among the lowest in the State. Jim Coil Research and Consulting estimates January 2007 vacancy rates of 0.8 percent for ownership units and 2.5 percent for rental units – both well below equilibrium rates and indicative of housing shortages, especially at lower income points.

Demand for new residential units is primarily a factor of the growth in income-qualified households within a trade area. For parcels along North Avenue, this trade area is realistically restricted to growth within the municipal limits of Grand Junction. Projected trade area household growth was analyzed along with historical patterns of single- and multifamily development to arrive at an estimated average annual demand for housing in the City of Grand Junction of approximately 600 units per year over the next 10 years.

Residential Demand
– Grand Junction Trade Area

Residential Demand Analysis

Primary Residential Trade Area

Ten-Year Demand Estimates

Households

2006

19,999

 

 

 

2011

22,627

Annual Growth Rate

2.50%

 

2016

25,600

 

 

 

Household Growth (06-16)

5,601

Adjust for 2nd homes, demolition, vacancy

7.0%

 

Adjusted Unit Requirement

5,994

Pct. Renters

31%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Income Range (2006 dollars)

Approx. Rent Range

Approx. Home Price Range

Current HHs in Income Bracket

New HHs by Income Bracket

Trade Area Demand from New Households (10-yr)

Total Units

Est. Pct. Renters

Total Rental Units

Total Ownership Units

up to $15K

up to $375

up to $75K

17%

15%

899

75%

674

225

$15K – 25K

$375 – $625

$75K to $100K

15%

14%

839

65%

545

294

$25K – 35K

$625 – $875

$100K to $150K

13%

13%

797

35%

279

518

$35K – 50K

$875 – $1,000

$150K to $200K

18%

18%

1,049

20%

210

839

$50K – 75K

$1,000+

$200K to $250K

18%

19%

1,139

10%

114

1,025

$75K – 100K

$1,000+

$250K to $350K

7%

8%

479

5%

24

456

$100K – 150K

$1,000+

$350K to $500K

8%

9%

539

2%

11

529

$150K and up

$1,000+

$500K and up

4%

4%

246

2%

5

241

Totals

 

 

100%

100%

5,987

31%

1,862

4,127

Approximately 1,862 units (or approximately 30 percent) of the trade area’s 10-year demand could be in the form of rental units. Attached ownership housing (condominiums and townhomes) appears to be underrepresented in Grand Junction compared to other cities of its size. Of the 3,350 units of ownership demand for those making $15,000 and above, up to 20 percent could be delivered in the form of an attached product (assuming appropriate marketing) based on demographic and consumer preferences.

Assuming quality design effort, support from the City in assemblage, regulatory improvements and development incentives, the North Avenue Corridor could realistically absorb approximately 200 apartment units and 140 single-family attached (condo, loft, townhome, rowhome) units over the next 10 years, as shown in the following tables. Note that this represents a capture rate of roughly 17 percent of market rate (income $15,000 and up) units in the City as a whole.

Single-Family Ownership Attached (townhome, condo, etc.)

10-Year Demand and North Avenue Capture

Annual Income Range

Approx. Home Price Range

Trade Area For-Sale Demand

Est. Pct. Townhome/Condo

Townhome/Condo Demand

Attainable Capture Rate (within attached)

Attainable Subject Capture (units)

$15K – 25K

$75K to $100K

294

65%

191

15%

29

$25K – 35K

$100K to $150K

518

50%

259

20%

52

$35K – 50K

$150K to $200K

839

20%

168

20%

34

$50K – 75K

$200K to $250K

1,025

10%

102

15%

15

$75K – 100K

$250K to $350K

456

10%

46

15%

7

$100K – 150K

$350K to $500K

529

5%

26

10%

3

$150K and up

$500K and up

241

5%

12

0%

0

Totals

 

3,902

20.6%

804

17.3%

140

Multifamily Apartments

10-Year Demand and North Avenue Capture

Annual Income Range

Approx. Rent Range

Trade Area Rental Demand

Attainable Capture Rate (within apartments)

Attainable Subject Capture (units)

$15K – 25K

$375 – $625

545

15%

82

$25K – 35K

$625 to $875

279

20%

56

$35K – 50K

$875 to $1,000

210

20%

42

$50K – 75K

$1,000+

114

15%

17

$75K – 100K

$1,000+

24

15%

4

$100K – 150K

$1,000+

11

10%

1

$150K and up

$1,000+

5

0%

0

Totals

 

1,188

17.0%

202

(b)    Retail. Demand for new retail space is determined by future retail expenditures by new households. This demand was determined by multiplying growth in households with that portion of household income spent on general retail purchases. An additional adjustment was made to allow for demand from space turnover and obsolescence. Because of Grand Junction’s role as a regional hub, its retail inventory is supported by rooftops well beyond Mesa County itself. We estimate that for 100 square feet of store space supported by Mesa County residents, an additional 80 square feet is supported by residents outside the County. As shown in the following table, Mesa County household growth alone would support approximately 900,000 square feet of new retail demand over 10 years. Adding in demand from outside the County (at varying rates depending on the category) and replacement of obsolete space (at a rate of one percent annually), Mesa County could see demand for a total of 1.6 million square feet of new retail space by 2017.

Assuming a 15 percent to 20 percent capture rate of Trade Area retail demand, the North Avenue Corridor could be expected to add approximately 240,000 to 325,000 square feet of new retail space (again, assuming quality design, marketing, and City support). This demand would likely take the form of neighborhood serving dining and specialty retail in the key nodes around the college and hospital, but could have a significant region-serving component in the area around the improved 29 Road intersection.

Retail Trade Area (Mesa County)

Ten-Year Demand Estimates

Category

Demand from Trade Area Household Growth (s.f.)

Regional Draw Factor (Existing Surplus Pct.)

Additional Regional Demand (s.f.)

Turnover/Obsolescence Demand (s.f.)

Total New Trade Area Demand (s.f.)

Auto Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores

26,126

55%

14,369

11,164

51,659

Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores

52,694

50%

26,347

18,337

97,378

Electronics and Appliance Stores

22,463

20%

4,493

4,931

31,887

Bldg. Mater., Garden Equip. and Supply

43,601

55%

23,981

18,434

86,016

Food and Beverage Stores

 

 

 

 

 

Grocery Stores

181,671

30%

54,501

47,431

283,603

Specialty Food Stores

4,579

25%

1,145

1,100

6,824

Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores

18,090

65%

11,758

9,686

39,534

Health and Personal Care Stores

25,431

55%

13,987

10,611

50,030

Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores

54,871

50%

27,435

21,119

103,424

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Books and Music

31,726

75%

23,794

23,239

78,759

General Merchandise Stores

144,546

45%

65,046

48,184

257,777

Miscellaneous Store Retailers

32,328

75%

24,246

22,891

79,465

Food Services and Drinking Places

 

 

 

 

 

Full-Service Restaurants

55,470

15%

8,321

11,760

75,551

Limited-Service Eating Places

56,506

5%

2,825

11,002

70,334

Special Food Services

4,598

10%

460

955

6,012

Drinking Places

3,521

65%

2,289

1,890

7,700

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Demand in Selected Categories

758,221

 

304,997

262,734

1,325,953

Demand from Excluded Categories* (20%)

151,645

50%

75,822

52,547

280,013

Total New Locally Supported Demand

909,866

 

380,819

315,281

1,605,966

*e.g., entertainment, banking, professional/medical office, etc.

(c)    Office. Demand for new office space is derived from two primary sources: expansion of existing industry and the relocation of new companies into the market. Employment projections by industry classification for the Trade Area were used to estimate demand over the next 10 years. Assuming a 2.7 percent annual growth rate in overall employment, the analysis revealed demand for almost 1,000,000 square feet of new office space over this period. Assuming a 10 percent capture rate, the North Avenue Corridor could absorb approximately 95,000 square feet of new office space over the next 10 years.

This demand could take the form of medical, educational and other primarily professional office space at key nodes along the western portions of the corridor, and could be in the form of flex office basic employment space nearer to the 29 Road junction.

Office Demand
Grand Junction Trade Area

Summary of Office Space Demand from Employment Growth

Trade Area

Ten-Year Demand

 

Est. 2006 Jobs

Annual Job Growth Rate

10-Yr. Job Growth

Est. Pct. Office

10-Yr. Office Demand from Job Growth (s.f.)

Est. Office Demand from Turnover (10-Year)

Total New 10-Yr. Office Demand (s.f.)

Agriculture and Mining

733

5.0%

461

35%

36,312

3,208

39,520

Construction

2,377

1.0%

249

5%

2,798

1,486

4,284

Manufacturing

2,701

1.0%

283

5%

3,179

1,688

4,867

Transportation

1,584

2.5%

444

15%

14,973

2,970

17,943

Communication

505

2.5%

141

25%

7,959

1,579

9,538

Electric, Gas, Water, Sanitary

198

2.5%

55

20%

2,496

495

2,991

Wholesale Trade

1,928

1.0%

202

5%

2,270

1,205

3,475

Retail Trade

12,218

3.0%

4,202

5%

47,274

7,637

54,911

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate

3,839

2.5%

1,075

95%

229,822

45,586

275,408

Services (Non-Retail)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hotels and Lodging

862

3.0%

296

5%

3,334

539

3,873

Automotive Services

666

3.0%

229

5%

2,577

416

2,993

Entertainment and Recreation

664

3.0%

228

5%

2,568

415

2,983

Health Services

10,962

3.0%

3,770

25%

212,063

34,256

246,319

Legal Services

498

3.0%

171

95%

36,609

5,914

42,523

Educ. Institutions

1,894

3.0%

651

15%

21,979

3,551

25,530

Other Services

7,391

3.0%

2,542

30%

114,382

18,477

132,859

Government

3,774

3.0%

1,298

25%

73,009

11,794

84,803

Other

13

3.0%

5

30%

306

50

356

Totals

52,807

 

16,302

 

813,910

141,266

955,176

(Res. 174-07 (Exh. A), 12-3-07)

32.12.070 Market absorption.

(a)    Absorption Summary. The table below summarizes potential North Avenue Corridor absorption of land uses over the next 10 years.

Summary of Potential Absorption
– North Avenue Corridor

10-Year Demand Summary for North Avenue Corridor

 

Level of Public Sector Support/Investment

 

none

moderate

high

Residential (units)

 

 

 

Single-Family Attached

?

140

200

Multifamily Apartments

?

200

300

Retail (s.f.)

100,000

240,000

325,000

Office (s.f.)

25,000

95,000

150,000

(b)    Strategy Considerations. As market opportunities for residential, retail and office space in the North Avenue Corridor occur over the next 10 years, the following strategic implications should be considered:

(1)    Residential.

(i)    Trend towards townhome/condo products in downtown neighborhoods.

(ii)    Appeals to buyers seeking amenities without maintenance hassles.

(iii)    Targets empty nesters, young professionals and single parents – the majority of downtown housing residents.

(iv)    Some more affluent students (and recent students) may have interest in ownership housing near the college.

(v)    As interest rates climb, the trend may shift towards apartments – less investment appeal, but greater flexibility and less commitment.

(vi)    Conversion of vacant downtown office space into apartment and condominium residential units has been very successful in many urbanizing markets.

(vii)    Open question as to whether Grand Junction has critical mass of residents with urban tastes to succeed with certain attached residential products.

(viii)    Will depend heavily on design quality, experience of developer and education of community to overcome any negative attitudes about downtown living.

(ix)    Investment in infrastructure, streetscape, and other pedestrian amenities also key – including investment in “soft spaces.”

(x)    College area near N. 12th Street represents a strong opportunity for vertical mixed use including both ownership and rental residential.

(xi)    Veterans hospital area near 23rd Street has opportunity (with relocation of some big box retail) for mixed use including senior-oriented housing and even extended stay lodging targeting hospital patients and their families.

(xii)    Workforce housing price points should be in strong demand throughout the corridor.

(2)    Retail.

(i)    Levels of retail demand suggest support for a range of retail product types.

(ii)    Greatly enhanced connectivity around 29 Road will lend support to some regional retail – not mall scale, but two to three medium to large box tenants with pads and in-line complements.

(iii)    Neighborhood-supporting services, dining (both limited and full-service) and specialty retail – in a mixed use urban environment – could make sense over time around nodes to the west.

(iv)    Ground-floor retail with office and attached residential above would add overall pedestrian appeal and be mutually supporting.

(3)    Office.

(i)    Major office development anywhere in Grand Junction carries the boom-bust risk.

(ii)    Professional, medical, education and other small floor-plate office tenants could be attracted to coordinated developments on the west side of the corridor.

(iii)    Sites further east along the corridor are more amenable to flex office and other employment-generating uses.

(4)    Mixed Use. For new construction, three- to four-story densities (in appropriate locations), at a human scale, with streetscaping and a mix of uses, would create a more user-friendly experience for:

(i)    Employees;

(ii)    Prospective residents;

(iii)    Visitors;

(iv)    Shoppers.

(Res. 174-07 (Exh. A), 12-3-07)

32.12.080 Public comment summary.

(a)    In order to obtain the most information from the public during the open house, the following board and questionnaire were used. The EDAW team along with City staff collected commentary on the boards and concepts presented. The public was able to comment directly and was asked to also fill out the questionnaire in order to obtain the best guidance and direction for the project.

(b)    The open house served as a workshop where the public was able to discuss with the EDAW team and City staff items of concern as well as their desires for the improvement of the North Avenue Corridor. Subsections (c) through (f) of this section present the primary items expressed by the public:

(c)    Neighborhood Concerns.

(1)    Aesthetics.

(2)    Safety.

(3)    Impact of development on neighborhood.

(4)    Homeless shelter.

(5)    Current lack of identity.

(6)    Financial impact to business.

(7)    Incentives.

(8)    Loss of neighborhood identity.

(9)    Illicit activity.

(10)    Dark sky/environmental practices.

(d)    Issues.

(1)    Homeless shelter.

(2)    Trailer parks.

(3)    Undesirable residential homes/lots.

(4)    Cruising of large empty parking lots.

(5)    Fence height of golf park.

(6)    Bus stop locations.

(7)    North access to Patterson.

(8)    Right turns.

(9)    New medians.

(10)    ADA accessibility.

(e)    Desired Improvements/Changes.

(1)    Sidewalks.

(2)    Landscaping.

(3)    Traffic/crossing at 12th Street.

(4)    Signage.

(5)    Ditches.

(6)    Overhead utilities.

(7)    Access to business (vehicular and pedestrian).

(8)    Bike paths.

(9)    Senior affordable housing.

(10)    Consolidate curb cuts.

(f)    Uses Lacking.

(1)    Retail anchor.

(2)    Neighborhood serving retail.

(3)    Quality sit-down restaurants.

(4)    Affordable quality housing.

(5)    Mixed housing opportunities.

(6)    Quality senior housing near amenities.

(7)    Quality grocer.

(8)    Quality hotel.

(9)    Entertainment (after 5:00 p.m.) opportunities.

(g)    The following document reflects the summary information attained at the first open house workshop. It includes the summary information from all of the public commentary received verbally and written. All of this information will help guide the approach scenarios of the potential districts and implementation strategies that the North Avenue Corridor could take.

(Res. 174-07 (Exh. A), 12-3-07)